Foreign Policy In Focus - Self-Determination - Regional Conflict Profile

Self-Determination Conflict Profile

Uganda

By John F. Clark

History

In the decades before the advent of European exploration, the relatively centralized kingdoms of Buganda and Bunyoro dominated a large part of the territory that is now southern and western Uganda. The Buganda kingdom was comparatively homogeneous, while Bunyoro included many other subject peoples in addition to the Banyoro core. After three decades of exploration and missionary work in the area, Britain declared a protectorate over Uganda in 1894. The approximate borders of the modern state were worked out over the ensuing fifteen years. Britain granted special privileges to the Kabaka (King) of Buganda in the Buganda Agreement of 1900, allowing a very high level of internal autonomy. Britain also favored Buganda vis à vis other polities of the protectorate, especially Bunyoro. Through their system of indirect rule, other kingdoms like Toro and Ankole were also recognized, territorially defined, and allocated some autonomy. Life for many of the pastoralist peoples of the north and eastern Uganda was hardly changed by the advent of colonialism.

Anticolonialism, which grew slowly in Uganda beginning in the early 1950s, was complicated by the strong desire of the Baganda to maintain their separate political identity. By the end of the decade, two main nationalist political parties had emerged: the Uganda People's Congress (UPC), with a Protestant base, and the Democratic Party, with strong Catholic support. In 1961, with independence looming, the Kabaka Yekka ("Kabaka Only"-KY) party appeared to campaign for the preservation of Buganda's special status within Uganda. Uganda achieved independence in 1962 under a Westminster-type constitution, with the added feature of a ceremonial presidency. In the elections of that year, the UPC, under Milton Obote, forged an alliance with the KY and won a solid majority of seats in the parliament. Obote became the ruling prime minister, and Kabaka Mutesa II of Buganda became ceremonial president.

Obote's first stint in office was marked by a series of missteps leading to his downfall in 1971. In 1964, Ugandan army soldiers mutinied, demanding higher pay and faster promotions. The prime minister addressed this challenge initially by calling in British troops, but he also acceded to most of the mutineers' demands. In 1965, it came to light that Obote was supporting anti-government rebels in the Congo, and later that he had profited from the plunder of Congo's resources by warlords. In 1966, Obote sought to concentrate power in his hands by revising the constitution and assuming presidential authority. This move led to a showdown with Buganda authorities in the Battle of Mengo, in which the power of Buganda was crushed, and the Kabaka forced into exile. Seeking a way to further consolidate his power at the expense of traditional authorities and rival politicians, Obote announced a "Move to the Left" in 1969. This alienated many of Uganda's Western supporters. Following an assassination attempt later the same year, Obote banned all opposition political parties and announced a state of emergency.

In January 1971 General Idi Amin, the senior army commander, seized power after having fallen out of favor with the Obote regime. Amin quickly undertook to purge potential opponents from the army and government, and his rule soon proved to be violent and erratic. In 1972, Amin ordered the expulsion of the country's Asian population (mostly Indians) within a period of 90 days, and the vast majority (some 50,000) were evacuated. This move precipitated an economic crisis from which Uganda only recovered in the 1990s. Amin's government grew increasingly incompetent and brutal as the 1970s wore on. The infamous State Research Bureau tracked down, arrested, tortured, and killed countless of Amin's suspected enemies, while Uganda's army was allowed to murder thousands of members of opposition ethnic groups. The army itself came to be dominated by Muslims and others from Amin's home West Nile region. Amin fatally miscalculated, however, in his October 1978 invasion of Tanzania. President Nyerere quickly reorganized the Tanzanian defense forces, drove the Ugandan army from Tanzanian territory, and then proceeded into Uganda, where they ousted Amin in April 1979.

New elections were organized in Uganda in 1980, backed by the Commonwealth and Tanzania. The main contestants were Obote, who had the backing of Nyerere and some Asian business figures, Paul Ssemogerere, of the Democratic Party, and Yoweri Museveni of the new Uganda Patriotic Movement. Obote prevailed in the deeply flawed elections, and re-took power amid much controversy. Ssemogerere opted for the role of legal opponent, while Museveni took to the bush, founding the National Resistance Army/Movement (NRA/M). The NRA operated chiefly from an area northeast of Kampala known as the "Luwero Triangle." The army undertook a vigorous counter-insurgency campaign against the NRA, during which it killed thousands of civilians and NRA sympathizers. The army also terrorized the population in general as Obote exercised scant control over its activities. By contrast, the NRA was relatively disciplined and respectful of civilian rights. In July 1985, disgruntled generals overthrew Obote in response to the disintegration of the army.

Meanwhile, Museveni took advantage of the chaos in the government to press forward his military campaign, even while signed an accord to participate in a unity government. The NRA entered Kampala in January 1986, and Museveni was soon sworn in as president. Museveni has since enjoyed continual popularity as president, particularly across the south and east of Uganda. Museveni instituted an unusual form of government known as "no-party democracy" that heavily restricts the activities of all political organizations except the NRM (now, simply "The Movement"), to which all citizens nominally belong.

The main organs of government are part of a pyramidal system of "Local Councils," comprising five layers at the village, sub-county, county, regional, and national levels. Museveni's scheme of no-party government was approved in public referenda in 1995 and 2000. Museveni himself was directly elected president in 1996 and again in 2001 under the 1995 constitution, which limits a president to 2 five-year terms. Another important political innovation in the 1995 constitution was the statutory mandate of at least one female deputy for each of Uganda's 45 districts; this and similar measures have made Museveni popular with Ugandan women.

Uganda has also seen great economic progress under Museveni. In the 1990s, GDP growth has been strong and steady while inflation has been brought under control. The standard of living has gradually risen throughout the country as a result. Uganda's power production has been expanded, and its transportation net repaired and extended. Innumerable NGOs have entered the country to perform social development tasks. Under Museveni, Uganda has received generous international aid, and the country's debt has remained stable due to simultaneous debt relief.

Despite Museveni's general popularity, his regime has faced constant rebel activity, and the increasing opposition of civilian "multipartyists." Moreover, many citizens of Uganda in the north have never accepted Museveni, whose rule they regard as illegitimate and alien. A series of charismatic and millenarian religio-political figures and movements have emerged in the peripheral areas of Uganda to challenge Museveni over his fifteen years in power. Some of these have been aided by Sudan, which has resented Museveni's support of southern Sudanese liberation groups. The most prominent of these have been the LRA and ADF (see below).

Another source of instability is cattle-raiding and banditry on the borders of territory occupied by the Karamoja people, a group that is largely "uncaptured" by state authority. Museveni's intervention in eastern Congo in 1998, which eventually became an occupation, grew increasingly unpopular in subsequent years. Museveni faced a significant electoral challenge from within the Movement in the 2001 elections in the person of Col. Kizza Besigye. Museveni's winning percentage declined from 74% in 1996 to 69% in 2001, while the percentage of voter turnout declined from 73% to only 57%, despite significant government pressure on citizens to vote. Since the country's institutions depend more on Museveni's personality than the force of law, Uganda will face great uncertainty when Museveni's second term ends in 2006.

Main Actors

National Resistance Movement (or "the Movement"): President Museveni founded this organization and its military wing (the National Resistance Army--NRA) following the disputed elections of 1980. In theory, all Ugandans belong to the Movement, which serves as a link between the citizens and government under the no-party constitution. The Movement has been genuinely popular for having restored basic order to most parts of Uganda, and for ruling without the use of outright terror. The Movement has dominated the political scene since 1986, but it is unclear whether the organization will survive Museveni's eventual departure from politics. Besigye's run in 2001 elections demonstrated that the Movement might have important internal cleavages.

Older political parties: Two important parties have survived in the popular consciousness from the days of multiparty politics, and maintain party headquarters. The Democratic Party, founded in 1954 by Baganda politicians, originally had a largely Catholic constituency; Paul Ssemogerere became president in 1980, at the end of the Amin years, and the party retains disproportionate support in Buganda and among Catholics. The Ugandan People's Congress (UPC), formed in 1960, had its roots in an older party dating from the early 1950s and originally had a largely Protestant constituency. Before and after Amin, the UPC was the party of President Obote. Today it has regional strength in the north, especially among the Acholi and Langi. Many new political parties appeared during the 1990s, but none has thus far attracted a wide, national following.

Ugandan People's Defense Forces (UPDF): Uganda's army sometimes acts politically independent. Many of its most influential officers are Banyankole, or hail from southwestern Uganda. The UPDF is charged with subduing the rebel groups and suppressing local ethnic conflicts, as in Karamoja. In the event of a major political crisis, it is not unthinkable that senior UPDF officers might take power.

Rebel groups: At present, the main two rebel groups are the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), operating in the north, along the Sudanese border, and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) operating in the Rwenzori Mountains of western Uganda along the Congolese border. Both allegedly have benefited from Sudanese funding in the recent past, and neither has a coherent ideology with popular appeal. Rather, both rely on terror, kidnapping, and the despair of alienated social elements to remain active.

The Kabaka (King) of Buganda: This position was abolished by Obote in 1996, but was restored as a cultural post in 1993 by Museveni. Although currently occupied by the mild Ronald Mutebi, it could again become a politically relevant office.

Ethnic Breakdown (approximate)

Proposed Solutions and Evaluation of Prospects

The different varieties of communal and ethno-political conflict in Uganda require different sorts of solutions. The LRA and ADF are largely terrorist organizations, whose pretenses to being agents of political reform are absurd, given their behavior. These could be suppressed by bringing an end to foreign sponsorship and by applying effective police/military action against the groups. A solution to Karamojong pattern of rebellion and cattle-raiding will ultimately require that the group be integrated more fully into modern Ugandan society. In the short term, education campaigns and disarmament in Karamoja areas could help. The much broader disaffection of the Acholi, Iteso, and other northern groups, which constantly threatens to give rise to insurgencies, can only be contained by an opening of the political space to such groups. Effectively, this means the eventual introduction of a multiparty political system.

Role of U.S.

The U.S. strongly supports the Museveni regime, particularly with the IMF and World Bank, which has the effect of discouraging many domestic policy reformers in Uganda. The U.S. has not put significant pressure on Museveni to institute political reforms. Since Uganda's 1998 invasion of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the U.S. has officially suspended military cooperation, but has continued to send strong diplomatic signals of support. The U.S. officially identified the LRA and ADF as terrorist organizations in late 2001, and the U.S. has pressured Sudan to end aid to the LRA. The U.S. has not played a significant role in the conflicts involving the Karamojong.

(John F. Clark <clarkj@fiu.edu> is Associate Professor of International Relations at Florida International University, Miami. He is the editor of The African Stakes of the Congo War (Palgrave, forthcoming 2002) and was a Fulbright scholar in Uganda during the 1999-2000 academic year.)

Sources for More Information

M. Louise Pirouet, Historical Dictionary of Uganda. (Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press, 1995.)